Predicting Onset and Duration of Rainfall Seasons in Amukurat-Samuk Villages, Uganda

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For people in Amukurat-Samuk villages, the ability to predict or estimate the onset and duration of rainfall seasons is an essential skill for sustainable agriculture. One way is to use the migration of the tropical rainfall belt located along the equator, which migrates following the thermal equator (i.e. the location along the equator where solar radiation, and thus the temperatures are highest). Amukurat-Samuk villages are located at latitude 1.9185° N from the Equator, and longitude 33.3009° E of the meridian at Greenwich, England. The villages experience two rainy and two dry seasons as the thermal equator, and thus the tropical rainfall belt pass over the vilages twice each year; one when the thermal belt moves northwards and one when the thermal belt moves southwards. The duration of each rainy or dry season can vary greatly depending on local climatic conditions. During the years 2012 - 2013, we followed the migration of the tropical rainfall belt across Africa from South to North Africa during the January - July months and from North to South during the August to December months. We then compared the time course of the Africa's rainfall migration with the time course of changing seasons (based on morning ambient temperature) in Washington, US at in Mukilteo - Everrett, WA USA located at latitude 47.9445° N, and longitude 122.3046° W
We then calculated the rates of migration of African tropical rain belt from March to June 2012, when the rain belt was moving from South to North( Northward direction.

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